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EXPLAINER – Can Washington revive stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks?

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Burç Eruygur

18 August 2026Update: 18 August 2026

  • Media reports suggest visit by US envoys to Moscow, Kyiv to revive stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks
  • Despite US-mediated talks earlier this year, negotiations have been on hold as Washington’s focus shifts to Mideast

Recent media reports concerning a potential visit by US envoys to Kyiv and Moscow have raised questions about whether Washington can rekindle peace efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Citing an unspecified source, Russian state news agency Tass reported on Aug. 8 that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner may visit Kyiv and Moscow “within a week to 10 days” for talks on the ongoing conflict.

The report came just over a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Axios in an interview that a likely visit to Kyiv by the two US envoys in the next two weeks was an outcome of his meeting with Trump in the White House a day prior.

Witkoff and Kushner have never visited Kyiv, while both envoys conducted several visits to Moscow since US-mediated talks began, the last of which took place on Jan. 22, when they met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

Reason behind stalled negotiations

Both Russian and Ukrainian authorities have converged on the point that the current pause in peace negotiations are the result of the US focus on Iran and the armed conflict in the Middle East, which began on Feb. 28.

Under US mediation, Russia and Ukraine have held three rounds of peace talks this January and February in a bid to find a settlement for the more-than-four-year war.

The first two rounds of negotiations were held in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Jan. 23-24 and Feb. 4-5. The second round resulted in an exchange of 157 prisoners of war from each side, marking the first such exchange between Russia and Ukraine in five months.

A third round of US-mediated negotiations took place later that month, on Feb. 17-18, in Geneva, Switzerland, which focused primarily on core issues in the ongoing war, namely territories, but did not result in any breakthrough.

In the weeks that followed, Russia and Ukraine held separate bilateral talks with the US, while acknowledging that trilateral negotiations had been paused as Washington shifted its focus to the war in Iran.

Tehran and Washington have yet to reach a final agreement to end the ongoing confrontation, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy supply chains.

Deadlock caused by different positions

Statements from Kyiv and Moscow continue to shed light on ongoing differences that have caused a deadlock in negotiations.

In the first months of the war in Iran, Russia has reiterated its demand that Ukraine withdraw its military from the industrial Donbas region.

Russian authorities have also accused the US of moving away from what they described as “understandings” reached during Putin and Trump’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska, in August 2025.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in June that Russia had accepted US proposals discussed in Anchorage.

However, Russia has also praised the US and Trump personally for seeking to end the war.

Later that month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that any agreement was reached between Moscow and Washington.

“There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war,” Rubio told reporters in Bahrain’s capital Manama.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities have regularly rejected the demand for a withdrawal from Donbas.

Kyiv has also pushed for post-war security guarantees from Western allies against Russia, though Moscow, for its part, has insisted that it seeks a comprehensive and legally binding security arrangement that goes beyond Ukraine.

Prospects of expected talks

The reported visit of the US envoys is expected to revive discussions on a peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

During an evening address last Tuesday, Zelenskyy declared that the Ukrainian side had presented the American side with proposals to end the conflict.

“America can help strengthen our defense, first and foremost through air defense, and it can put pressure on Russia so that its plans change – from prolonging the war to preparing to end it,” Zelenskyy said.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said on Aug. 10 in an interview with Tass that Moscow is open to any constructive proposals that take into account Moscow's legitimate interests and renewed Russia’s commitment to the “understandings” in Alaska.

He also rejected the “freezing” of the Ukraine war without addressing its “root causes,” while defining US rhetoric and actions as “contradictory.”​​​​​​​

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Trump’s approval rating sinks to new low at 33 percent

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New poll found a majority of US citizens concerned about the US war on Iran.

The approval rating of United States President Donald Trump has fallen to the lowest level of his presidency, with an overwhelming majority of Americans concerned that the US-Israel war on Iran will last a long time.

Just 33 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s job performance, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll. The approval rating is the lowest ever during this term and matches the lowest seen in December 2017 during his first term.

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The poll, conducted over the course of four days, found 64 percent of Americans disapproved of how he is handling his job.

The slide in polling figures comes as an overwhelming majority of Americans are concerned by the continuing war on Iran. Consumers have seen the price of fuels rise dramatically since the war began in February, with the cost of gasoline [petrol] up nearly a third compared to a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Trump, who campaigned on promises to keep inflation in check and avoid long-lasting wars, initially pledged that the conflict with Iran would take a few weeks. He argued the war was the only way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon that could threaten the world. But Iran has proved resilient and has kept the oil and gas export trade through the Strait of Hormuz largely bottled up even as the conflict has cooled.

On Friday, Trump told a rally of supporters that paying “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” is worth the cost of ensuring “a very evil country,” meaning Iran, could not have a nuclear weapon.

Some 80 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans, think US involvement in Iran “will go on for an extended period of time”, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Just 16 percent said the conflict would likely end in a few weeks.

A Politico poll recently showed just a third of self-identified Make America Great Again (MAGA) voters, typically the most unquestioning of Trump’s base, felt the economic costs of the war with Iran were worth it.

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Early Edition: August 18, 2026

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Sign up to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here.

A curated weekday guide to major news and developments over the last 24 hours. Here’s today’s news:

IRAN WAR 

President Trump told reporters yesterday that Iran is unlikely to agree to the deal he wants and called for its surrender, as he ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement that expired yesterday. Trump also threatened to “bomb the shit out of [Oman]” if it obstructed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on managing the strait. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war have stalled, adding that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the U.S. naval blockade of the strait if diplomacy failed. Luke Broadwater reports for the New York Times; Trevor Hunnicutt and Katharine Jackson report for Reuters.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged Trump in a call to pursue talks with Iran to de-escalate tensions between the two countries and offered Ankara’s support for peace efforts, the Turkish presidency said today. Reuters reports.  

The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations received a report today that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. Reuters reports.  

Two drones targeted the office of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s prime minister and the home of the region’s intelligence chief in northern Iraq yesterday, the KRG security agency said. The agency added that the attack was launched from Iranian territory, without clarifying whether the drones had hit their target. An Iranian news agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Iraqi counterpart in a phone call that there is no information indicating the attack originated in Iran. Reuters reports.  

Russia is shipping drone components, ammunition, and TNT to Iran through the Caspian Sea to help Tehran replenish stockpiles damaged during the war, according to a European government document obtained by NBC News. Dan De Luce reports. 

IRAN WAR – YEMEN 

Yemen’s Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree yesterday claimed that the Houthis attacked a Saudi military ship and four escort vessels in the Red Sea with missiles. Two sources from the Yemeni government told Reuters earlier in the day that the Houthis attacked an out-of-service ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with six missiles. Reuters reports.  

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk yesterday called on “all parties to de-escalate tensions and spare the Yemeni people from further misery.” Türk warned against a return to full-scale conflict following the Houthis’ deadliest attack in years, which killed 58 government troops, according to a military source. Gavin Blackburn reports for Euronews.  

IRAN WAR – LEBANON 

Israeli flags planted on the main coastal highway in southern Lebanon are a violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon said yesterday. Reuters reports. 

IRAN WAR – OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 

Maj. Jason Watson, a U.S. airman arrested last month for calling for Trump’s removal over the Iran war, said in an interview yesterday that he was willing to accept military punishment for his dissent. During the interview, Watson characterized the war in Iran as an act of U.S. aggression and compared the U.S. military actions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Watson could be punished for “disloyal statements” or “contemptuous words” against the commander in chief and high-ranking government officials. Minho Kim reports for the New York Times.  

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR 

Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner met yesterday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which resulted in an agreement to establish two working groups for disarmament and public health in Gaza, according to the Board of Peace and Netanyahu’s office. Netanyahu’s office added that the talks were “deep and constructive,” while the Board of Peace said, “it was agreed that there will be no [Israeli military] redeployment from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed.” Asked if Israel had committed to the U.S. plan for Gaza, a spokesperson for the Board of Peace Director Nicolay Mladenov said it was a “work in progress.” Daniella Cheslow reports for POLITICO; Julia Frankel, Samy Magdy, and Wafaa Shurafa report for AP News.  

A U.S. official told Axios that much of the near 4-hour meeting between Kushner and Netanyahu focused on explaining the Board of Peace plan, clarifying misconceptions, and addressing Netanyahu’s concerns. The official said that Kushner also told Netanyahu that the United States does not expect Israel to refrain from taking action against imminent threats by Hamas. However, while Kushner and Netanyahu were meeting, Trump told Fox News that Israel should stop its airstrikes in Gaza, seeing as Hamas has agreed to disarm. Barak Ravid reports; Feliz Solomon and Summer Said report for the Wall Street Journal

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 

A Russian missile attack today killed 10 people in a village in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities said. Reuters reports.  

Ukraine launched 620 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight, according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. Sobyanin added that Russian forces downed 180 drones and emergency services were working at crash sites, without going into detail on any casualties or damage. Reuters reports.  

Russia’s embassy in London warned Britain today that it would face consequences for supplying drones to Ukraine which are used to target Russian territory. The embassy was responding to a report in The Times over the weekend which said British-made drones had been used for long-range strikes against Russia for the first time. Reuters reports.

OTHER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS 

Zambia’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, was declared the winner of a second term early this morning. Hichilema won 60 percent of the vote, according to the Electoral Commission of Zambia. John Eligon reports for the New York Times.  

Eight Israeli airstrikes hit the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in northwestern Syria early this morning, targeting the runway and storage facilities, according to a military source. The Israeli military had not commented on the attacks at the time of writing. Reuters reports. 

Indian security agencies arrested more than 200 “terror operatives” linked to Pakistan, preventing potential “subversive attacks” around India’s Independence Day last week, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah said yesterday. Pakistan’s foreign affairs ministry said it “strongly” rejects the allegations made by Shah, and called them “propaganda.” Reuters reports.  

TECH DEVELOPMENTS 

Nvidia said yesterday that it had agreed to spend as much as $105 billion to back one of the world’s largest data centers, which is being built in Ohio and will be leased to OpenAI. Kalley Huang reports for the New York Times.  

Trump-backed World Liberty Financial is collaborating with Hong Kong-based venture, World Claw, which offers AI models developed by Chinese companies. A Reuters review found that 43 of the 90 models available through WorldClaw’s website were developed by Alibaba, Baidu, Z.ai and other Chinese technology companies the Trump administration says pose risks to national security and intellectual property. Lawrence Delevigne reports.

U.S. FOREIGN AFFAIRS 

A U.S. Navy destroyer lost power for four days in the South China Sea last month, according to a U.S. 7th Fleet statement. The crew lost access to drinkable water, running toilets, and air conditioning. The Navy did not explain why it had not disclosed the incident until now. Tara Copp reports for the Washington Post.

Trump yesterday defended his move to cut U.S.- South Korea military exercises, citing a lack of help with the Strait of Hormuz. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said today that a solid alliance with the United States underpins national security, but also called for stronger independent defence capabilities in light of Trump’s recent statements. The U.S. Korea commander has begun discussions on scaling back joint South Korea drills. Cleve R. Wootson Jr. reports for the Washington Post; Hyung-Jin Kim reports for AP News; Joyce Lee and Kyu-Seok Shim report for Reuters.

U.S. IMMIGRATION DEVELOPMENTS  

Democratic members of Congress held a public forum yesterday on the fatal ICE shooting of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine last month. The Department of Homeland Security has said the inspector general would investigate an agent’s decision to open fire. Maia Spoto and Murray Carpenter report for the New York Times.

ICE looks to shield local police from financial consequences if they are accused of on-duty misconduct during immigration arrests. According to a DHS document published on Friday, the agency proposes to subsidise liability insurance for state and local officers who are trained and deputized to enforce federal immigration laws. Ryan J. Foley reports for AP News.

U.S. DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 

Luigi Mangione’s state trial has been postponed following his guilty plea on federal charges. The Judge issued the order following requests from Mangione’s lawyers to dismiss state charges on grounds of double jeopardy. Torey Van Oot reports for Axios.

Palm Beach County voting records show Trump voted by mail in Florida’s Republican Primary this month, despite his efforts to limit the practice across the country. Gary Fineout reports for POLITICO.

The Justice Department plans to deploy a thousand monitors to the polls in the fall, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon. In an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, Dhillon said the deployment is “probably going to be a historic number for a Republican administration.” She also claimed that the DOJ is part of the executive branch and reports to the president. Patrick Marley reports for the Washington Post.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LITIGATION

On Monday, the Supreme Court again rejected Trump’s request to review his civil conviction for sexual abuse and defamation against E. Jean Carroll. Trump paid $5 million to Carroll following the court’s initial rejection of an appeal in July. Ann E. Marimow reports for the New York Times.

A federal appeals court yesterday rejected Trump’s strategy of picking U.S. Attorneys. The appointments aimed to circumvent congressional confirmation through the selection of interim prosecutors. The judgment states that the Attorney General cannot “create a de facto Acting U.S. Attorney by delegating all of the functions and duties of the U.S. Attorney to someone else.” Danny Hakim reports for the New York Times.

A federal judge yesterday blocked plans to move FBI headquarters to Washington. The ruling also found that Trump’s administration had illegally tossed out previously approved plans to build new facilities nearby in Maryland. Jonathan J. Cooper reports for AP News.

Did you miss this? Stay up-to-date with our Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions.

If you enjoy listening, Just Security’s analytic articles are also available in audio form on the <a href="http://justsecurity.org" rel="nofollow">justsecurity.org</a> website.

ICYMI: Yesterday on Just Security

No Warrant, No Problem: Administrative Subpoena Powers and an Outdated Fourth Amendment Doctrine

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FEATURED IMAGE: WASHINGTON - JANUARY 23: Clouds move as the sun sets against the west front of the United States Capitol building January 23, 2007 in Washington, DC. U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union speech before a joint meeting of Congress at 9:00 PM Eastern. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Russian strikes kill 10 in Kharkiv as Ukrainian drones hit Moscow

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Russian attacks reportedly killed 10 people and injured eight in Ukraine’s Kharkiv.

Ukraine launched more than 620 drones at Moscow overnight in what appeared to be its largest such attack in years, while Russian attacks killed 10 people in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 180 of the 620 drones heading towards Moscow were “destroyed” by Russian defences over the capital region between Monday evening and ‌5am (02:00 GMT) on Tuesday. He said 17 more drones were shot down en route to the capital later.

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Russia’s state-run news agency TASS described the barrage as the largest drone attack on Moscow in the past two years.

The drone attack wounded three people, including a 10-year-old girl, Moscow region’s Governor Andrey Vorobyov said on Telegram. He said the “most serious consequences” were reported in the Pavlovsky Posad district, where a house burned down. Several more homes and a guesthouse were damaged in Bogorodsky district, he added.

A warehouse east of Moscow belonging to e-commerce giant Wildberries was damaged in Tuesday’s drone assault. In a statement, the company said its logistics complex sustained “minor damage” after “debris hit the wall of the building”.

Ukraine has struck multiple Wildberries warehouses in recent weeks, saying the company supplies components for Russian drones.

Ten killed in Kharkiv

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian air force reported shooting down or suppressing 111 of 147 “enemy” drones overnight.

Kharkiv’s regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said preliminary information indicated 10 people were killed and eight injured in the Pechenihy settlement.

Five others, including a nine-year-old boy, were injured in the city of Izyum, he added.

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Elsewhere, Russian drones sparked fires and damaged buildings in Kyiv region’s Brovary city, including an office building and warehouses, said Mayor Ihor Sapozhko.

With front-line fighting at a near standstill and talks frozen, Ukraine and Russia have significantly stepped up long-distance attacks, pushing the civilian death toll to its highest levels since the war’s first months in 2022.

In July alone, 437 civilians were killed in Ukraine, the highest monthly toll since May 2022, according to a United Nations tally.

Russian authorities reported 79 civilians killed in Ukrainian attacks in July, up from the previous month.

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5 Big News Stories Overnight - Monday, August 17, 2026

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US-Iran MoU is set to expire

Al Jazerra reports:

The Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending fighting between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday, with little sign that either side is willing to extend the agreement, which both sides have accused the other of violating for weeks.

“We have not yet made a decision to restart negotiations with the United States,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on Telegram on Saturday.

Meanwhile, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued to exchange messages with Iran. Araghchi added that Iran was working on a separate agreement with Oman to hash out new shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, but emphasised that this was only possible if a political solution was reached.

Trump Creates Another Potential Conflict Area

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises! While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Blanche Refuses to Say He’ll Always Be Independent of Trump as AG

The New York Times reports:

Todd Blanche, the newly confirmed attorney general, refused to say on Sunday that he would always act independently of White House control but claimed during an interview that President Trump has “never” demanded he prosecute specific people.

Mr. Blanche, displaying a greater ease in fielding a variety of pointed questions than his predecessor, Pam Bondi, sought to balance his loyalty to the president and a commitment to the evenhanded administration of justice during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“There’s a big difference between saying we will always do our job and investigate any case, and act independently of the White House,” Mr. Blanche said when pressed to pledge his independence by the show’s host, Kristen Welker.

“No, I’m not going to pledge that, and no attorney general should ever pledge that,” he said.

More Questions About Newport Billionaire "Prosecutors Focus on Four Businesses Tied to Dodgers Owner Mark Walter"

An Exclusive Report in the WSJ:

Federal prosecutors digging into Mark Walter’s business empire are focused on four entities that served as intermediaries between insurance companies he controlled that made loans to businesses that he also controlled, according to people familiar with the matter.

Prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating whether Walter, the chief executive of Guggenheim Partners who owns the Los Angeles Dodgers and various other businesses, or his companies committed fraud by concealing financial connections while borrowing billions of dollars from insurers he controls.

The main entities investigators have narrowed in on, the people said, are ABS Capital, a Miami outfit founded by two former Guggenheim executives; Amistad Financial, an investment company that owns EquiTrust, a life insurer once controlled by Guggenheim and Walter; Bradford Allen, a Chicago-based commercial real-estate broker with long ties to Guggenheim; and Hudson Trading, another Chicago firm.

Russia builds secret drone bases in striking distance of Nato

The Telegraph reports:

Russia has installed secret bases capable of firing high-powered drones deep into Nato territory.

A Telegraph investigation can reveal 10 Kremlin bases with newly built launch pads for Moscow’s most advanced long-range suicide drones.

Some of the bases are already being used to pummel Ukraine, with their proximity to the border helping with mass aerial attacks launched past Kyiv’s diminishing air defences.

But they also offer a long-term threat to Nato allies, placing them within reach of Vladimir Putin’s hi-tech attack drones.

Analysts warn that the rapidly evolving technology could also be turned on Europe in the event of a war, with some of the bases putting Russia’s most powerful drones in range of Warsaw.

US-Iran MoU is set to expire

Al Jazerra reports:

The Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending fighting between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday, with little sign that either side is willing to extend the agreement, which both sides have accused the other of violating for weeks.

“We have not yet made a decision to restart negotiations with the United States,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on Telegram on Saturday.

Meanwhile, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued to exchange messages with Iran. Araghchi added that Iran was working on a separate agreement with Oman to hash out new shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, but emphasised that this was only possible if a political solution was reached.

Trump Creates Another Potential Conflict Area

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises! While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

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Frustration with Trump grows among U.S.’s Persian Gulf allies, officials say

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Frustration with Washington is growing in the Persian Gulf region, where U.S. allies are increasingly concerned that President Donald Trump is unable to manage the diplomacy necessary to secure peace with Iran, Arab and Western officials say.

Trump in recent weeks has repeatedly issued threats against Iran, only to withdraw them, citing progress in talks. After months of conflict, and continuing missile and drone strikes by Iran and its proxies, three officials and a former U.S. diplomat told The Washington Post, the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now united in their aggravation with the administration. Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.

“Trump started this war,” one Gulf official said, “and we are paying the price.” Like others in this article, he spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject. Anger with the United States, the official said, was at its highest point since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.

The Gulf states continue to rely on Washington as a close security partner and major arms supplier, and Qatar and Bahrain host large U.S. bases. But the frustration is leading some states to consider new arrangements. These dynamics are unlikely in the near term to significantly reorder the region, analysts say, but some countries have begun to explore their options.

A mutual defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan last week was “a signal to the U.S.,” a senior European official said.

The pact shows the three powerful Sunni Muslim states “are trying to diversify their security and defense partnerships,” said the official, who is in regular contact with Gulf leaders. “In their mind, the U.S. is not enough.”

A White House official said Trump “has extraordinary relationships with all of our Gulf partners.”

“The United States has been in regular contact with all of our regional allies since before Operation Epic Fury,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under rules set by the White House. “Iran is more isolated than ever before as a result of its terrorist actions.”

Representatives of the Saudi, Emirati, Qatari, Kuwaiti and Bahraini governments did not respond to requests for comment.

“There has been frustration from the get-go,” said Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, he said, feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war that Trump is now struggling to resolve.

Maksad, who has extensive contacts within Gulf leadership, said Trump’s Iran policy is often described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.”

Anna Jacobs, a fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said there has been “diminished trust” of the U.S. since the start of the war. U.S. allies think the country’s “conduct in the region is making them less safe, not more safe,” she said.

One Western diplomat in the region said these changes don’t amount to a significant shift in sentiment toward the United States. Even before the war with Iran, he said, U.S. forces in the region were not “enthusiastically” welcomed. “It was more something that was a necessary evil,” the diplomat said. “Now, the necessity of it is being put in question.”

Saudi Arabia has come under particular pressure in recent weeks. In addition to attacks from Iran and Iran-backed groups in Iraq, the kingdom has been targeted by Iranian-aligned Houthis in Yemen.

Houthi forces have repeatedly struck Saudi energy infrastructure and are attempting to shut down the Bab al-Mandab strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in the early days of the war, Saudi Arabia has depended on its Red Sea ports to export its oil.

Attitudes toward the war among Gulf leaders have shifted. Oman has opposed the conflict from the outset, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have at times backed it.

Emirati forces have conducted “numerous” strikes on Iranian territory in recent months, according to the Western diplomat, and Saudi forces have struck back at Iranian-backed groups attacking from Iraq.

“At the beginning of the war, they were — I don’t want to say, supportive — but honestly, they were not totally against the war,” the senior European official said. The thinking in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, he said, was that a quick, definitive victory could prove beneficial.

That began to shift in the lead-up to the first round of talks between Iran and the United States in April, the official said, when it became clear that not only would the Iranian regime not fall, but it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In the months since, Trump’s inconsistency has alarmed the Gulf, said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University.

“Even before all this back and forth with Trump, there was no clear strategy,” said Al-Saif, a fellow of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He cited the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran in June.

“The MOU was a joke,” he said. The agreement didn’t address the Gulf states’ top concerns, including Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or Tehran’s support for proxy forces.

“Those terms were not terms of our liking,” Al-Saif said, “and that’s why it died out sooner than later.”

Trump, the White House official said, “has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy.

“Unfortunately, Iran chose the path of violence by killing American troops, committing international acts of terrorism, and lashing out at its neighbors in the region — and the Commander-in-Chief ensured that they reaped the consequences of those decisions.”

The Gulf states lack an immediately viable alternative to their decades-long security partnerships with the United States. As the conflict continues, the Gulf official said, their only choice is to double down on their alliances with Washington.

“Whatever we do,” he said, “we cannot say no to the United States.”

Douglas Silliman, a U.S. ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq under President Barack Obama and Trump, said he heard frustration with Washington on a recent visit to the region. But in recent weeks, he said, he is also hearing growing anger at Tehran for its continued attacks on infrastructure and refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Silliman, now the president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, described the feeling in the region as “kind of this odd contradiction of being mad at the United States for starting the war and being dependent upon the United States” for equipment, munitions and intelligence.

If the conflict continues, the economic pressure on the Gulf will grow. Even during peacetime, the region quiets over the summer, tourism slows and residents hole up indoors to escape 100-degree days.

But in autumn, temperatures fall and activity resumes. This year, the conferences, summits, festivals and Formula One races that pack the calendar from October through December are all in limbo.

Saudi Arabia’s 10th annual Future Investment Initiative Institute in late October, the “Davos in the Desert,” could be an early test of whether senior officials and top CEOs are willing to visit the region, the Western diplomat said.

“They may tweak the theme” to acknowledge continued insecurity in the region, he said. “To postpone would send the wrong message.”

Iran continues to launch drones and missiles against Kuwait, but in the capital, much of life has returned to normal, Al-Saif said. “We have been through worse,” he said, referring to the 1990 invasion by Iraq that triggered the Persian Gulf War. “We handled the occupation. We can handle this.”

The security lockdown from the war’s earlier stage has been largely lifted. Businesses are open, traffic has returned to city streets and Al-Saif has resumed teaching in person. But the conflict, he said, must not continue much longer.

“A quick end is obviously something we want,” he said. “The Gulf War was much more straightforward than today.”

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Michael_Novakhov
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